The Incumbency Factor: Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race
This blog is part of an ongoing assignment for Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard College taught by Professor Ryan Enos. Throughout the semester, we will explore historical election data and use it to forecast the outcome of the 2024 election.
Introduction:
The concept of incumbency advantage in politics is well-documented and particularly potent in U.S. presidential races. Incumbents typically benefit from a range of advantages such as greater name recognition, more media exposure, a seasoned political infrastructure, and robust fundraising capabilities. However, these advantages do not always guarantee electoral victory. This exploration will delve into the historical performance of incumbents in U.S. presidential elections and ponder the potential implications for high-profile figures like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as they possibly head into the 2024 presidential race. Could history offer a prelude to the future, or will the upcoming election challenge historical precedents?
Historical Overview of Incumbency:
Throughout U.S. presidential history, incumbency has often been synonymous with electoral advantage. This advantage is anchored in the various perks that come with holding office, including substantial name recognition, access to a robust political network, media exposure, and increased fundraising capabilities. Presidents such as Franklin D. Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower capitalized on these advantages, using the prestige and resources of the presidency to secure re-election and cement their legacies as influential leaders.
However, the power of incumbency is not without its vulnerabilities. Historical events show that external factors such as economic downturns and political controversies can severely undermine the benefits of incumbency. For example, President Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 both encountered significant national challenges—Carter faced an energy crisis and hostage crisis, while Bush dealt with a faltering economy—that eventually led to their electoral defeats. These examples underscore that while incumbency provides a considerable platform, it also subjects officeholders to intensified scrutiny regarding their handling of national issues.
As we approach the 2024 elections, the dynamics of incumbency are again at the forefront of political discourse. Kamala Harris, currently serving as Vice President, is poised to harness an incumbency-like advantage should she choose to run. While not a sitting president, her current role affords her a significant public platform and leadership experience that align with the traditional benefits associated with incumbency. Her visibility in national and international affairs, combined with her historic role as the first woman of color to hold the office, enhances her recognition and positions her favorably in the public eye.
Incumbent Candidate Win Rate:
To understand the incumbent advantage, the first step is to analyze how often sitting presidents win re-election. We will calculate the number of elections in which an incumbent candidate won versus those where the incumbent lost.
This graph reveals that, from 1948 to 2020, incumbents won 61.5% of the time when seeking re-election. This statistic highlights the significant but not infallible edge provided by incumbency, with a loss rate that underscores the impact of various mitigating factors such as socio-economic conditions and public sentiment. The visual data representation stresses the fluctuating nature of incumbent success, correlating with periods of political stability or upheaval.
Incumbent Party Win Rate:
Beyond individual candidates, the incumbent party’s ability to maintain control of the presidency can also reflect broader political trends. Our analysis extends to how frequently the incumbent party wins, regardless of whether the same candidate is running.
This broader perspective helps gauge whether a party’s control of the presidency offers a similar advantage. The results are surprisingly balanced, with the incumbent party winning about 50% of the time, suggesting that party incumbency does not carry as strong an advantage as individual incumbency. This finding is critical as it indicates that the electorate may distinguish between party and individual performance.
Polling Data for Incumbents (1968-2024):
Polling data is another useful way to understand how incumbents perform. Let’s look at polling trends over time, focusing on the average polling support for Democratic and Republican candidates from 1968 to 2024.
The graph shows average polling support for the Democratic and Republican parties from 1968 to 2024. Historically, both parties have experienced fluctuating levels of support, with the Democrats showing strong polling in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and Republicans gaining momentum during the 1980s. Over time, the two parties’ polling support appears to converge, particularly from 2000 onward, with no dominant party in more recent elections. This historical trend implies that incumbency alone does not guarantee electoral success, as support for both parties has fluctuated significantly. For the 2024 election, this pattern suggests that polling data alone may not predict a clear winner, especially in closely contested races.
Applying Incumbency to Harris and Trump in 2024:
Kamala Harris: As the current Vice President, Harris may benefit from incumbency in this upcoming election. Historically, sitting vice presidents have a weaker incumbency advantage compared to sitting presidents, but she could still benefit from the Democratic party’s established political infrastructure and her close association with the Biden administration. However, it is to consider that some people still have bad connotation towards as some republican voters believe that the Biden administration didn’t do a good job, which should be considered in this election. Therefore, if we were to consider her an incumbent of the democratic party then the chances would be about 50% to win (from the analysis of historical dataset). However, if we do considered Harris as president incumbent because she filled in for Biden as everyone expected she would, then her chances to become the first female president of the United States would look brighter.
Donald Trump: Trump’s case is unique as a former president seeking a non-consecutive second term. While he is not the incumbent, his prior status as president gives him certain advantages, such as name recognition, existing political infrastructure, and established voter bases. However, his absence from office since 2020 may diminish his incumbency advantage compared to when he was in power. At the same time, Trump is in a peculiar situations as he’s running for president currently, some voters seem to forget that he’s also still on trial but what is helping him overcome this status as convicted felon is due to him focus his campaign purely on Migration
Conclusion:
Incumbency has historically been a pivotal factor in U.S. presidential elections, with incumbents securing re-election approximately 61.5% of the time since 1948. This notable trend underscores the inherent advantages of incumbency, including increased visibility, established networks, and fundraising prowess. However, it’s crucial to recognize that these advantages do not guarantee electoral victory. External factors such as economic conditions, public opinion shifts, and the strategic deployment of campaign resources can critically impact an incumbent’s chances.
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, both Kamala Harris and potentially Donald Trump stand to benefit from different aspects of the incumbency advantage, albeit in unique contexts. Harris, as the incumbent Vice President, may not wield the full power of a sitting president but inherits a considerable platform that includes national exposure and an integral role in current governmental initiatives. These factors could provide her with a significant boost, particularly if the Biden administration can point to tangible policy successes and a stable economy. Her historic position as the first female Vice President and woman of color in the role also adds a unique dimension to her candidacy, potentially galvanizing a broad spectrum of voters.
On the other hand, Donald Trump’s situation, should he decide to run, represents a rare instance of a former president seeking a non-consecutive second term. His presidency has left a lasting impact on the Republican Party and its voter base, ensuring that his influence remains substantial. Trump’s campaign would likely capitalize on his enduring name recognition and the solidified support from his previous term. However, his time out of office may alter the traditional incumbency dynamics, as he will need to defend his past administration’s record while also appealing to a political landscape that may have shifted since his last tenure.
An U.S election has never been as calsified as this one because of the change in rules we see with both candidates. The main issue is no longer policy or taxes but it’s more focused on issues of personhood; race, ethnicity, religion. These factors give a sense of belonging to people but what we currently see at hand is the divide of the American population due to difference in values, which makes this election pivotal for the future of the U.S.